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I'm looking at markets this morning getting that sick feeling you get right at the top of a big hill on a roller coaster.
Here we go again. As you may have suspected, the bloodbath among Wall Street banks is not yet over, with Lehman, incredibly going Chapter 11, and Merrill Lynch sold out to Bo A for $50 billion. So there go two of the very biggest, most reputable Wall Street firms up in smoke under duress. It's hard to believe, and right now unless you're under a rock, you've got to be looking at wider markets with trepidation.
I was feeling last week that near-term gold was again looking like a bit of an opportunity and a refuge, and the trading into the early part of this week should bear me out. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw gold leap from around $750 up to $820 or higher, still down from over $1,000 at one point earlier this year, but up from in the $600's in only 2007.
As a bit of a side note, I saw a very nice piece on gold and the state of the gold markets (yeah, I'm a gold bug). Basically, they make the case that maybe gold was getting a little oversold, but that the actual mining companies are where the real value is. So there's your case for GDX, the Van Eck Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF. And as a side note to the side note, I really do love the Wall Street Journal. They still do the best reporting (scanning all the weekend stories about all the turmoil) and do a scrupulously "just the facts ma'am" job with international affairs, etc., as well.
And regarding just about anything else, you're almost afraid to move, but the feeling of opportunity—the golden-egg-laying goose of capitalism—is thick in the air. But trying to catch value on financials right now is a frightening prospect, as are U.S. markets in general ... not to mention European markets.
And even the dollar run now could be threatened by the latest wave of craziness.
But if you step back a bit, you've got to think there are a few things that are clear. Though your gut may be churning right now, and there's clearly some pain ahead, we can't be too far from the bottom in U.S. markets ... it's hard to imagine a dip in the Dow below 10,000, though Hougan and Friedman from our shop still have that live bet on (with Hougan on the bear side and longtime Dow short man Friedman long since turned long on the U.S. market).
And Europe and the euro look worse than U.S. markets and the dollar. And commodities prices may still struggle in the medium term with a stagnant global economy. But those opportunities will pick up again, and we'll be feeling good about our positioning in the market ... and taking the volatility as an opportunity to get rebalanced and fully invested in the forthcoming recovery.
Again, I sort of like these times, because it's the way markets have of flushing out the system and setting sound fundamentals and stronger companies for future growth. In these times of strain, structures and products are tested and strengthened, and somehow, the process, though painful, gives me more confidence in the soundness of the system.
And for it all, ETFs will be right there in the middle of the action. Matt was on the money about me being on the money for how all of this makes ETFs work even better, even as ETFs bring a better and more transparent way of looking at the markets. And if you want to have some fun looking at the markets this week, keep your eye on XLF, which should again see tremendous volumes and has been the key gauge to track this wild market roller coaster that has seen financials in the front of the roller coaster, with arms upraised, a scream in the air.
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