The perilous thing about writing a blog, Jim, is that your words can come back to haunt you.

In last Thursday's blog, you wrote:

"With the Dow down 40% this year, is it really a surprise that the driver of this downturn—real estate—could end up down 30%?"

Which is funny, because on August 20, 2007, you responded to my prediction that home prices could drop nationwide by saying:

"I guess it's one thing to think of selected overheated markets (think New York 1970s) dropping 30%, but the real estate market overall—that's hard to imagine."

Hmmm...

So now you're saying a 40% or 50% drop is in the offing?

I suppose it's possible. The Citigroup disaster has me thinking that the economy could be a lot worse than people are anticipating. But home prices have come down a lot in places like Los Angeles, and with the impending inflationary overhang, it's hard to imagine them falling another 10% or 15% between now and 2012, and staying there for four years. They might well drop that much, but I have to think they'll make some kind of rebound over the next 48 months.

We'll see.

At least we'll soon have a way to bet on those price trends easily, assuming that the long-promised MacroShares Housing Price ETFs make it to market. Those funds will provide 200% exposure and -200% exposure to the S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, so that people like you, Jim, can speculate on where home prices are going next.

Just ... you know ... make sure you're not playing with the kids' college funds.