After spending part of my career as a commodities broker and securities/futures trader, I find it fun once in awhile to scratch my more adventuresome side.

And I'm starting to wonder if this might be one of those moments to take a small sliver of my portfolio and take short positions in a few select ETFs.

If you've followed the blogs on our Web site, Jim has mentioned some of the trades I've tried during the past year or so.

While maintaining at least a partial awareness of fundamentals, my trading decisions are primarily based on the technicals.

As such, right now I see a great opportunity to take a short position in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (most easily by shorting the DIAMONDS, NYSEArca: DIA). I've been patiently waiting for the Dow to reach or breach the 9000 level. On Thursday, the index finally did just that with a flourish.

The Dow is now at its highest level since early last November. The relative strength index I follow has clearly moved into the overbought range. In addition, stochastics indicate an extended market and are starting to trend down.

Keep in mind that volume was relatively light on a big up day Thursday on the Dow. Also, the 9000-level has proved to be a good resistance point dating back to October 2008.

My comfort zone is to make trades when I feel the risk/reward is at least in the 2-to-1 range. In this case, I think we definitely could trade down to 8000. If that doesn't happen, I'd be looking to bail out just above 9500, if wrong.

I've always been a contrarian. So why not jump in now when everyone's getting giddy again? I've been known to be a bit early and sometimes (as Jim says) I'm also a good indicator to fade. I've also been run over in the past in these light-volume summer rallies, so buyer (or in this case, seller) beware.

Whichever way you go, I'd love to hear your thoughts on which direction the next leg will be.