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The Winner's Curse
By Rob Arnott, Lillian Wu


An alternative way to look at this is to average across all eight countries for each of the 12 sectors. Figure 2b shows the same average results as Figure 2a, of course. As we observed in the United States, in most sectors and in most countries, the top company changes with some regularity. The average sector, in the average G-8 country, has seen anywhere between two and six top dogs, over the 30-year span. "Business equipment" has seen an average of nearly six different top dogs in each of the G-8 countries; this may go a long way toward explaining why the top dogs in "business equipment" have the most wretched results, lagging their intracountry competitors by an average of 12 percent per year over the subsequent decade. As in the U.S., energy top dogs fare best in the G-8, but this means they only hurt their investors by a bit less than 2 percent per year over the subsequent decade.

figure2a

figure2b


 

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