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MO' Money
By Jim Wiandt | August 12, 2008

Matt and I have talked macro ideas. There are current market-focused views out there too.

Along the lines of what Matt and I have been talking about the last couple of blogs, there was a very nice Q&A with Keith Lerner posted to the site last week.

He's even a bit more on the market-timing side than we were, but he looks at things in a very measured way. He presents a calm opportunistic view that holds to core long-term asset allocation, while tilting here and there to also reflect short-term positions.

There's some overlap in what he says and what Matt and I said. For example, he likes the long-term fundamentals of Emerging Markets, but is nervous about them—and commodities—short term. I think I would second that ... but long term (which is mainly how I'm working), you've got to like Emerging Markets, Frontiers and Energy/Commodities. So I'm rebalanced, but not pulled out of Emerging Markets.

EAFE in fact makes me MORE nervous long term because despite the addition of some Eastern European upside, the European economy is no dynamo, and even more, look out below for the euro in the intermediate term. I was surprised Keith made no mention of that dynamic, but when he posted it a week or so ago, the euro story was less clear than it seems today (1.4872 from 1.58 less than 2 weeks ago).

He's also more bullish on healthcare than we seem to be, more for the near-term valuation (though we both seem to like the sector long term). The Slusiewicz feature also supports the short-term healthcare breakout.

Lerner also talks about mid-caps and growth and small caps in the face of a rebounding stock market. That all sounds good, but feels much less definite to me than the sector and regional stories we're looking at. And I'm NOT yet convinced of a recovery of the market. He doesn't mention Financials.

So anyway, I thought that was interesting and worth a reprise here.

What else do we have—the EDHEC story from Paul. If there's one thing that one makes clear, it's that the ETF market in Europe is COMPLETELY different than the U.S. ETF market. Just the fact that they surveyed only institutional investors should point right to that fact.

I'll admit to being someone consumed with the Olympics at the moment. Again the big story there is CHINA. Man—they are looking good. Did you see that opening ceremony? Unbelievable. There is just this palpable sense of can-do confidence there. It's the U.S. in the 1950s and I'm telling you—look out. The empire is rising. And I'm not talking in 500 years. I'm talking 50.

And it's not the false empire of the USSR. This is the real deal, with trillions in real infrastructure (not the crumbling Leninist kind either) going up and in right now. Talking currency—I think you'll want to be on the right side of the yuan as well, because when things open up, as I'm sure they will, there will be some corrective jags upward in the valuation.

And let's see—how about the ETF business? Heather has a new ETF Watch up that profiles the new Van Eck Gulf States (NYSEArca: MES) ETF. That's an interesting one, but I'll bet the timing into the market isn't quite optimal ... but you'd have to think it's still a good one intermediate term, anyway. And international Treasuries filed by iShares. That's of interest, so to speak.

Also of note from ETF Watch is that your biggest redemptions came in EFA and SKF (the double inverse ProShares financial), while the biggest creations were in SPY and IWM (iShares R2000). That shouldn't be too surprising on either front.

Right now according to Heather, there are now 799 U.S.-listed ETFs and ETNs trading in the U.S. and another 538 in registration with the SEC (she lists out 526 of them individually). Good lord, have a look through that list. There is a LOT there of interest (and a lot more that seems dubious on its face). Lots of fun to work your way through that list if you have not done it in awhile.

 


 

 

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