I'm glad you've seen the light, Jim.

It takes a big man to admit when he is wrong, and to yield to the wisdom of a younger generation.

Since you asked so nicely what I see in my great crystal ball, I'll tell you. But first, a clarification:

I didn't say that oil would fall to $25/barrel. I said that it could, and that it was nearly as likely to fall to $25/barrel as it was to go back to $100/barrel. I still think that's true, and with oil trading at $38.77/barrel, the market seems to agree.

Looking forward, I'll reiterate my other comment from before: I think the Dow will see 10,000 before it sees 6,000. I think that the direction and size of the fiscal stimulus is overwhelming right now, and that Helicopter Ben and his compadres at other central banks around the world will succeed in restarting economic growth in 2009.

Speaking of which ... you mentioned the stunning fact that the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates to a range of 0%-0.25%, which of course brings to mind the eerie parallel of Japan and its lost decade. Bob Eisenbeis over at Cumberland Advisors has the best analysis of the Fed's maneuver that I've seen. Eisenbeis points out that the Fed's action merely brings official policy in line with what was already happening in the market, noting that the effective Fed Funds rate hasn't been above 20 basis points since December 4. He has some great thoughts on what the rate cut really means for Fed policy in coming months and years, and how the Fed will control liquidity now that its rate-cutting quiver is out of arrows.

Of course, there is a piper who must be paid for all this liquidity, eventually. That payment may come in the form of inflation, a continued deterioration of the dollar or weaker economic growth ... it may come in all three guises ... but we can be sure it will come.

One more crystal ball thought: We are getting much, much closer to the bottom in housing prices. Local banks in my area are now offering 30-year mortgages at 4.875%. That's down from 6.25% a year ago. That will chop about 15% off a homeowner's monthly payment. I'm guessing that, coupled with falling values over the last few years, that will be enough to put in a bottom for prices in most locations.

Now to turn back to something I actually know something about...

As I reported this morning on Twitter (follow me as ETF_Twitter), I've been looking recently at one exchange-traded product in particular: the ELEMENTS S&P Commodity Trends Indicator ETN (NYSEArca: LSC). This has to be the most underreported ETP story of the past year.

LSC is a commodity futures index fund, similar in some ways to funds like the PowerShares DB Commodity Index Fund (NYSEArca: DBC). Except unlike DBC, which is down 35.93% over the past three months, LSC is up 23.78%.

That would make sense if LSC were an inverse fund, but it's not. Instead, LSC follows a long/short strategy based on momentum trends in the commodity markets. Recently, it's been short, which has paid off handsomely. What's nice is that, unlike an inverse fund, should the market reverse course, LSC should eventually abandon its shorts and adopt a long policy.

I'm generally not a fan of gimmicky ETFs and ETPs, but the commodities market is not like the equity or bonds markets, and this is a situation where a long/short strategy might make sense.