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Hedge Recession With Employment Futures
Written by Heather Bell   
Friday, 14 March 2008 10:51

The CME Group may have just the ticket for the investor looking to hedge against the recession that most economists seem to think we are in (according to a recent Wall Street Journal article). On April 27, the exchange plans to launch futures contracts and options on futures contracts tied to the monthly nonfarm payroll data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The value of the contract will be equal to $25 times the change in the Nonfarm Payroll number from the previous month.

The Nonfarm Payroll number comes from a report released by the BLS on the first Friday of every month; it surveys more than 375,000 different businesses, thereby determining the number of jobs that have been lost or created. Since one of the characteristics of a recession is the disappearance of jobs, the new contracts could soften the current recession's bite.

Although the number of nonfarm payroll jobs was up year-over-year for February 2008, the trend line has flattened dramatically and has actually declined these past couple of months. Given that the trend could continue, it appears the new contracts may arrive just in time.

 


Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

 

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