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Contango Reports

Contango Report: Backwardation Fuels BNO
By Sumit Roy | September 17, 2012

Energy
WTI
WTI
Current Annualized Cost
3.70%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
4.32%
Historical 09/14 5YR Annualized Roll
6.50%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCWTI


CONTANGO WATCH:
WTI is in contango through the first half of the one-year forward curve.

ROLL COSTS: The front-month roll fell to 3.7 percent annualized from 4.32 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango to Backwardation

Brent
Brent
Current Annualized Cost
-5.42%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
-4.61%
Historical 09/14 5YR Annualized Roll
2.59%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCBrent

CONTANGO WATCH: Brent's backwardation widened slightly last week. The European oil benchmark has been in steady backwardation since the beginning of 2011, boosting investor returns. In that period, front-month Brent futures are up 22 percent, while the United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO)—which holds front-month futures but must roll its contracts month after month—is up 32 percent.

As long as the Brent forward curve remains in backwardation, a fund like BNO should outperform Brent itself.

ROLL COSTS: Investors net 5.42 percent annualized from rolling front-month Brent contracts.

BOTTOM LINE: Backwardation

HH Natural Gas
HH
Current Annualized Cost
79.59%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
90.87%
Historical 09/14 5YR Annualized Roll
546.42%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCHH

CONTANGO WATCH: The natural gas contango narrowed, but remained in steep contango, as is typical during this time of the year.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 79.59 percent annualized to roll front-month natural gas contracts, down from 90.87 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Steep Contango

Precious Metals
Gold
Gold
Current Annualized Cost
0.95%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
1.01%
Historical 09/14 5YR Annualized Roll
1.15%
Contract Months:
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
RCGold

CONTANGO WATCH: Gold is in mild contango.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 0.95 percent annualized to roll front-month gold contracts, down from 1.01 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Mild Contango

Silver
Silver
Current Annualized Cost
-4.74%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
3.85%
Historical 09/14 5YR Annualized Roll
0.24%
Contract Months:
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Dec
RCSilver

CONTANGO WATCH: Silver is in mild backwardation and mild contango throughout most of the forward curve.

ROLL COSTS: Investors net 4.74 percent annualized from rolling second-month silver contracts, up from a cost of 3.85 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Mild Contango to Mild Backwardation

Platinum
Platin
Current Annualized Cost
0.66%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
0.38%
Historical 09/14 5YR Annualized Roll
1.47%
Contract Months:
Jan Apr Jul Oct
RCPlatin

CONTANGO WATCH: Platinum is in mild contango at the front end of the forward curve.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 0.66 percent annualized to roll front-month platinum contracts, up from 0.38 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Mild Contango

Palladium
Pallad
Current Annualized Cost
4.43%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
-4.16%
Historical 09/14 5YR Annualized Roll
1.76%
Contract Months:
Mar Jun Sep Dec
RCPallad

CONTANGO WATCH: Palladium is in backwardation at the very front end of the curve, and contango thereafter.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 4.43 percent annualized to roll second-month palladium contracts, down from a net of 4.16 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Backwardation to Contango

Industrial Metals
Copper
Copper
Current Annualized Cost
0.79%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
0.38%
Historical 09/14 5YR Annualized Roll
-0.08%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCCopper

CONTANGO WATCH: Copper is in mild contango throughout most of the one-year forward curve.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 0.79 percent annualized to roll front-month copper contracts, up from a cost of 0.38 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Mild Contango

Aluminum
Alum
Current Annualized Cost
8.28%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
8.22%
Historical 09/14 5YR Annualized Roll
7.28%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCAlum

CONTANGO WATCH: The aluminum forward curve is in backwardation at the very front end of the curve, and contango thereafter.

ROLL COSTS: Second-month annualized roll costs moved up to 8.28 percent from 8.22 percent the week before.

BOTTOM LINE: Backwardation to Contango

Zinc
Zinc
Current Annualized Cost
7.69%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
5.82%
Historical 09/14 5YR Annualized Roll
5.06%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCZinc

CONTANGO WATCH: Zinc is in contango across the one-year forward curve.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 7.69 percent annualized to roll front-month zinc contracts, up from a cost of 5.82 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango

Lead
Lead
Current Annualized Cost
2.54%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
3.20%
Historical 09/14 5YR Annualized Roll
2.86%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCLead

CONTANGO WATCH: Lead is in contango across most of the one-year forward curve.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 2.54 percent annualized to roll front-month lead contracts, down from 3.20 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango

Nickel
Nickel
Current Annualized Cost
0.88%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
1.62%
Historical 09/14 5YR Annualized Roll
0.78%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCNickel

CONTANGO WATCH: Nickel is in mild contango throughout the forward curve.

ROLL COSTS: Roll costs for nickel edged down to 0.88 percent from 1.62 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Mild Contango

Tin
Tin
Current Annualized Cost
-0.83%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
0.00%
Historical 09/14 5YR Annualized Roll
-2.58%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCTin

CONTANGO WATCH: The tin forward curve is in mild backwardation at the front end of the curve and flat thereafter.

ROLL COSTS: Investors net 0.83 percent annualized from rolling front-month tin contracts, up from zero.

BOTTOM LINE: Mild Backwardation to Flat

Agricultural Commodities
Corn
Corn
Current Annualized Cost
2.10%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
1.51%
Historical 09/14 5YR Annualized Roll
10.63%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCCorn

CONTANGO WATCH: Corn is in contango at the front end of the curve.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 2.1 percent annualized to roll front-month corn contracts, up from 1.51 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango to Backwardation

Wheat
Wheat
Current Annualized Cost
5.16%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
4.70%
Historical 09/14 5YR Annualized Roll
14.80%
Contract Months:
Mar May Jul Sep Dec
RCWheat

CONTANGO WATCH: Wheat's contango widened slightly last week.

ROLL COSTS: Wheat's annualized front-month roll costs rose to 5.16 percent from 4.7 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango to Backwardation

Soybeans
SoyB
Current Annualized Cost
0.62%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
-0.17%
Historical 09/14 5YR Annualized Roll
4.54%
Contract Months:
Jan Mar May Jul Aug Sep Nov
RCSoyB

CONTANGO WATCH: Soybeans is in mild contango at the front end of the curve and backwardation thereafter.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 0.62 percent annualized to roll front-month soybeans contracts, up from a net of 0.17 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango to Backwardation

Live Cattle
LiveC
Current Annualized Cost
14.37%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
13.51%
Historical 09/14 5YR Annualized Roll
7.64%
Contract Months:
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
RCLiveC

CONTANGO WATCH: The live cattle curve is in contango across most of the one-year forward curve.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 14.37 percent annualized to roll front-month live cattle contracts, up from 13.51 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango

Lean Hogs
LeanH
Current Annualized Cost
-1.01%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
-6.94%
Historical 09/14 5YR Annualized Roll
-14.53%
Contract Months:
Feb Apr May Jun Jul Aug Oct Dec
RCLeanH

CONTANGO WATCH: The front end of the lean hogs forward curve is in backwardation.

ROLL COSTS: Investors net 1.01 percent annualized from rolling front-month lean hogs contracts, down from a net of 6.94 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Mild Backwardation to Contango

Soft Commodities
Coffee C
Coffee
Current Annualized Cost
8.58%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
8.28%
Historical 09/14 5YR Annualized Roll
7.09%
Contract Months:
Mar May Jul Sep Dec
RCCoffee

CONTANGO WATCH: Coffee is in contango throughout the one-year forward curve.

ROLL COSTS: Investors net 8.58 percent annualized from rolling front-month coffee contracts, up from 8.28 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango

Cocoa
Cocoa
Current Annualized Cost
2.17%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
0.92%
Historical 09/14 5YR Annualized Roll
3.15%
Contract Months:
Mar May Jul Sep Dec
RCCocoa

CONTANGO WATCH: Cocoa is in contango across most of the one-year forward curve.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 2.17 percent annualized to roll front-month cocoa contracts, up from a cost of 0.92 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango

Sugar #11
Sugar
Current Annualized Cost
9.50%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
6.38%
Historical 09/14 5YR Annualized Roll
8.60%
Contract Months:
Mar May Jul Oct
RCSugar

CONTANGO WATCH: Sugar is in contango at the front end of the curve.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 9.5 percent annualized to roll front-month sugar contracts, up from 6.35 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango

Cotton #2
Cotton
Current Annualized Cost
3.66%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
3.70%
Historical 09/14 5YR Annualized Roll
10.68%
Contract Months:
Mar May Jul Oct Dec
RCCotton

CONTANGO WATCH: Cotton is in contango throughout the one-year forward curve.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 3.66 percent annualized to roll front-month cotton contracts, down slightly from 3.70 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango