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Contango Reports

Contango Report: NatGas Roll Costs Rise To 112%
By Sumit Roy | September 24, 2012

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Featured Commodity

CONTANGO WATCH: The natural gas contango widened, remaining in steep contango as is typical during this time of the year. Roll costs for natgas are significant through the January contract month, after which they level off. The front-month October contract is currently near $2.86/mmbtu, while the January contract trades at $3.48.

Thus, even if prices were to rise to the mid-$3.50's over the next few months, investors in a product such as the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)—which holds front-month futures—may not profit at all.
ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 112.26 percent annualized to roll front-month natural gas contracts.

BOTTOM LINE: Steep Contango

Has oil moved into backwardation yet? What does corn's roll yield look like? How do you know when it's time to buy—or sell?

Each week, we investigate the futures curves of the most important commodities in the U.S., helping investors better understand the market and seize buy-and-sell opportunities as soon as they arise. For an easy-to-understand explanation of contango, backwardation and roll yields, please click here to go to our Hard Assets University.

To see current contango curve and front-month roll costs for each of our selected commodities, please select a sector or commodity below (or read the whole report ):

Data as of close on September 21, 2012
Data courtesy IndexUniverse.com

 

Energy

Agricultural Commodities

 

Precious Metals

 

Soft Commodities

Industrial Metals

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Current Roll Previous Week's Roll Past Year Average Roll Historical 09/21 5YR Annualized Roll
Energy WTI 4.14% 3.70% 0.30% 3.86%
Brent -7.48% -5.42% -0.61% 2.30%
HH Natural Gas 112.26% 79.59% 3.30% 288.76%
Precious Metals Gold 0.82% 0.95% 0.12% 1.11%
Silver 4.53% -4.74% 0.14% 1.97%
Platinum 1.00% 0.66% 0.26% 1.63%
Palladium 7.67% 4.43% 0.25% 2.61%
Industrial Metals Copper 0.22% 0.79% -0.01% -0.09%
Aluminum 8.61% 8.28% 0.52% 7.70%
Zinc 7.55% 7.69% 0.12% 5.94%
Lead 3.60% 2.54% 0.27% 3.18%
Nickel 1.13% 0.88% 0.10% 1.40%
Tin -1.43% -0.83% 0.05% -4.05%
Agricultural Commodities Corn 1.62% 2.10% -1.20% 10.14%
Wheat 4.55% 5.16% 2.41% 15.00%
Soybeans 0.28% 0.62% -0.17% 4.66%
Live Cattle 14.96% 14.37% 1.16% 7.41%
Lean Hogs -6.36% -1.01% 0.73% -15.71%
Soft Commodities Coffee C 9.78% 8.58% 1.08% 7.69%
Cocoa 2.61% 2.17% 0.79% 3.19%
Sugar #11 9.06% 9.50% -0.99% 10.53%
Cotton #2 9.77% 3.66% -0.31% 11.88%



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