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Contango Reports

Contango Report: Cotton Drops Into Backwardation
By S.M. Brorup | October 22, 2012

Energy
WTI
WTI
Current Annualized Cost
5.59%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
5.63%
Historical 10/19 5YR Annualized Roll
5.78%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCWTI

CONTANGO WATCH: WTI is in contango across most of the one-year forward curve, with some fluctuations starting toward midsummer.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 5.59 percent annualized to roll front-month WTI contracts, down slightly from 5.63 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango

Brent
Brent
Current Annualized Cost
-7.56%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
-11.07%
Historical 10/19 5YR Annualized Roll
6.09%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCBrent

CONTANGO WATCH: Brent's backwardation narrowed but continues across the one-year curve.

ROLL COSTS: Investors net 7.56 percent annualized from rolling front-month Brent contracts, down from a net of 11.07 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Backwardation

HH Natural Gas
HH
Current Annualized Cost
172.09%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
142.05%
Historical 10/19 5YR Annualized Roll
261.01%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCHH

CONTANGO WATCH: The natural gas contango has widened again, remaining in the typical steep contango for this time of the year.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 172.09 percent annualized to roll front-month natural gas contracts, up from 142.05 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Steep Contango

Precious Metals
Gold
Gold
Current Annualized Cost
0.73%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
0.62%
Historical 10/19 5YR Annualized Roll
1.08%
Contract Months:
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
RCGold

CONTANGO WATCH: Gold's mild contango widened following sinking prices.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 0.73 percent annualized to roll front-month gold contracts, up from a cost of 0.62 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Mild Contango

Silver
Silver
Current Annualized Cost
3.79%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
1.27%
Historical 10/19 5YR Annualized Roll
1.57%
Contract Months:
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Dec
RCSilver

CONTANGO WATCH: Contango has steepened in silver at the front end of the forward curve.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 3.79 percent annualized to roll front-month silver contracts, up from a cost of 1.27 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango

Platinum
Platin
Current Annualized Cost
1.35%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
-0.10%
Historical 10/19 5YR Annualized Roll
1.69%
Contract Months:
Jan Apr Jul Oct
RCPlatin

CONTANGO WATCH: The platinum forward curve has moved into contango, continuing across the one-year forward curve.

ROLL COSTS: Investors paid 1.35 percent annualized from rolling front-month platinum contracts, up from a net of 0.10 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Mild Contango

Palladium
Pallad
Current Annualized Cost
3.89%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
-0.31%
Historical 10/19 5YR Annualized Roll
2.55%
Contract Months:
Mar Jun Sep Dec
RCPallad

CONTANGO WATCH: Palladium peaks into contango at the very front end of the curve before dropping back down and remaining flat thereafter.

ROLL COSTS: Investors paid 3.89 percent annualized from rolling front-month palladium contracts, down from a net of 0.31 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango

Industrial Metals
Copper
Copper
Current Annualized Cost
0.07%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
0.22%
Historical 10/19 5YR Annualized Roll
0.84%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCCopper

CONTANGO WATCH: Copper's mild contango has narrowed, but remains constant throughout the one-year forward curve.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 0.07 percent annualized to roll front-month copper contracts, down from a cost of 0.22 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Mild Contango

Aluminum
Alum
Current Annualized Cost
7.92%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
7.35%
Historical 10/19 5YR Annualized Roll
7.97%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCAlum

CONTANGO WATCH: The aluminum forward curve remains in steady contango.

ROLL COSTS: Front-month roll costs rose to 7.92 percent annualized from 7.35 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango

Zinc
Zinc
Current Annualized Cost
8.55%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
8.30%
Historical 10/19 5YR Annualized Roll
7.27%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCZinc

CONTANGO WATCH: Zinc is in contango across the one-year forward curve.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 8.55 percent annualized to roll front-month zinc contracts, up from a cost of 8.30 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango

Lead
Lead
Current Annualized Cost
0.00%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
-0.56%
Historical 10/19 5YR Annualized Roll
3.64%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCLead

CONTANGO WATCH: Lead has moved out of backwardation and is flat at the front end of the curve, moving into mild contango thereafter.

ROLL COSTS: Roll costs for lead were zero, up from a net of 0.56 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Flat to Mild Contango

Nickel
Nickel
Current Annualized Cost
1.50%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
1.49%
Historical 10/19 5YR Annualized Roll
2.49%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCNickel

CONTANGO WATCH: Nickel remains steady in mild contango throughout the forward curve.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 1.50 percent annualized from rolling front-month nickel contracts, up slightly from a cost of 1.49 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Mild Contango

Tin
Tin
Current Annualized Cost
-1.40%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
-0.56%
Historical 10/19 5YR Annualized Roll
-4.52%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCTin

CONTANGO WATCH: The tin forward curve steepened its mild backwardation across the one-year forward curve.

ROLL COSTS: Investors net 1.40 percent annualized from rolling front-month tin contracts, up from a net of 0.56 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Mild Backwardation

Agricultural Commodities
Corn
Corn
Current Annualized Cost
-1.17%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
-0.27%
Historical 10/19 5YR Annualized Roll
9.12%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCCorn

CONTANGO WATCH: Corn is in steepening backwardation, though the shape of the curve remains unchanged.

ROLL COSTS: Investors net 1.17 percent annualized from rolling front-month corn contracts, up from a net of 0.27 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Mild Backwardation

Wheat
Wheat
Current Annualized Cost
5.09%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
5.52%
Historical 10/19 5YR Annualized Roll
16.45%
Contract Months:
Mar May Jul Sep Dec
RCWheat

CONTANGO WATCH: Wheat's contango narrowed after peaking last week.

ROLL COSTS: Wheat's annualized front-month roll costs dropped from 5.52 percent to 5.09 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango to Backwardation

Soybeans
SoyB
Current Annualized Cost
0.87%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
-0.30%
Historical 10/19 5YR Annualized Roll
4.28%
Contract Months:
Jan Mar May Jul Aug Sep Nov
RCSoyB

CONTANGO WATCH: Soybeans have moved out of backwardation into mild contango this week; however, backwardation remains dominant across the one-year forward curve.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 0.87 percent annualized from rolling front-month soybeans contracts, up from a net of 0.30 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Mild Contango

Live Cattle
LiveC
Current Annualized Cost
18.90%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
19.88%
Historical 10/19 5YR Annualized Roll
10.64%
Contract Months:
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
RCLiveC

CONTANGO WATCH: The live cattle curve remains in contango, though narrowing slightly.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 18.90 percent annualized to roll front-month live cattle contracts, down from a cost of 19.88 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango

Lean Hogs
LeanH
Current Annualized Cost
55.45%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
58.74%
Historical 10/19 5YR Annualized Roll
64.74%
Contract Months:
Feb Apr May Jun Jul Aug Oct Dec
RCLeanH

CONTANGO WATCH: Though narrowing, the front end of the lean hogs forward curve remains in contango while the back end is in backwardation.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 55.45 percent annualized to roll front-month lean hogs contracts, down from a cost of 58.74 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango to Backwardation

Soft Commodities
Coffee C
Coffee
Current Annualized Cost
10.74%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
11.66%
Historical 10/19 5YR Annualized Roll
9.04%
Contract Months:
Mar May Jul Sep Dec
RCCoffee

CONTANGO WATCH: Coffee is in contango throughout the one-year forward curve.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 10.74 percent annualized to roll front-month coffee contracts, down from a cost of 11.66 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango

Cocoa
Cocoa
Current Annualized Cost
1.46%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
2.58%
Historical 10/19 5YR Annualized Roll
4.29%
Contract Months:
Mar May Jul Sep Dec
RCCocoa

CONTANGO WATCH: Cocoa moved into milder contango last week, while remaining in contango across most of the one-year forward curve.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 1.46 percent annualized to roll front-month cocoa contracts, down from a cost of 2.58 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Mild Contango

Sugar #11
Sugar
Current Annualized Cost
-2.94%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
-0.89%
Historical 10/19 5YR Annualized Roll
-15.58%
Contract Months:
Mar May Jul Oct
RCSugar

CONTANGO WATCH: Sugar widened its steepening backwardation at the front end of the curve.

ROLL COSTS: Investors net 2.94 percent annualized from rolling front-month sugar contracts, up from a net of 0.89 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Backwardation to Contango

Cotton #2
Cotton
Current Annualized Cost
-9.28%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
3.06%
Historical 10/19 5YR Annualized Roll
2.94%
Contract Months:
Mar May Jul Oct Dec
RCCotton

CONTANGO WATCH: Cotton dropped into deep backwardation last week at the front end of the curve, while the back end remains in contango.

ROLL COSTS: Cotton's annualized front-month roll costs dropped from 3.06 percent to net investors 9.28 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Backwardation to Contango