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Contango Reports

Contango Report: Wheat In Deeper Contango
By S.M. Brorup | October 29, 2012

Related ETFs: WEET / WEAT


Featured Commodity



CONTANGO WATCH: Following the official announcement of the Ukrainian ban on wheat exports, wheat's contango continued to steepen last week, rising almost 2 percent. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported lower-than-expected export sales of corn and soybeans, while wheat exports beat estimates. This favorable sign bled over into optimism in the demand for Black Sea exports, which had boosted the price of futures this past week, though not enough to take wheat out of its well-established range between $8.50 to $9 a bushel.

"The Ukrainian export ban is supportive for wheat but it had been widely expected and priced into the market so the price impact is relatively modest," said Rabobank Analyst Erin FitzPatrick. "But the decision will reduce the possibility that more Black Sea region wheat will come into the export sector for the rest of this marketing year."

In response, grain-based commodity ETFs saw a tidy little return, with both the iPath Pure Beta Grains ETN (NYSE Arca: WEET) and Teucrium Wheat (NYSE Arca: WEAT) making the Commodity Flows Top 5 Weekly Performers chart, netting returns of 3.26 percent and 1.82 percent, respectively. These funds may be the ones to watch as the ban come into effect.

ROLL COSTS: Wheat's annualized front-month roll costs rose from 5.09 percent to 6.97 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango


Has oil moved into
backwardation yet? What does corn's roll yield look like? How do you know when it's time to buy—or sell?

Each week, we investigate the futures curves of the most important commodities in the U.S., helping investors better understand the market and seize buy-and-sell opportunities as soon as they arise. For an easy-to-understand explanation of contango, backwardation and roll yields, please click here to go to our Hard Assets University.

To see current contango curve and front-month roll costs (Nov 12- Dec 12) for each of our selected commodities, please select a sector or commodity below (or read the whole report):

Data as of close on October 26, 2012
Data courtesy IndexUniverse.com

Energy

Agricultural Commodities

 

Precious Metals

 

Soft Commodities

Industrial Metals

 

Current Roll Previous Week's Roll Past Year Average Roll Historical 10/26 5YR Annualized Roll
Energy WTI 7.37% 5.59% 0.33% 7.27%
Brent -11.85% -7.56% -0.53% 6.04%
HH Natural Gas 218.01% 172.09% 3.53% 223.55%
Precious Metals Gold 0.42% 0.73% 0.13% 0.89%
Silver 3.65% 3.79% 0.14% 1.51%
Platinum 0.76% 1.35% 0.25% 1.40%
Palladium 4.54% 3.89% 0.25% 2.55%
Industrial Metals Copper -0.38% 0.07% -0.01% 0.80%
Aluminum 8.16% 7.92% 0.53% 8.00%
Zinc 8.27% 8.55% 0.16% 5.41%
Lead -3.51% 0.00% 0.27% 3.09%
Nickel 1.36% 1.50% 0.10% 2.23%
Tin 0.00% -1.40% 0.04% -3.71%
Agricultural Commodities Corn 1.08% -1.17% -1.37% 10.01%
Wheat 6.97% 5.09% 2.00% 17.59%
Soybeans 0.68% 0.87% -0.24% 3.01%
Live Cattle 20.34% 18.90% 1.28% 12.46%
Lean Hogs 50.36% 55.45% 1.06% 64.08%
Soft Commodities Coffee C 11.43% 10.74% 1.20% 9.77%
Cocoa 1.86% 1.46% 0.71% 3.73%
Sugar #11 -2.45% -2.94% -0.60% -11.71%
Cotton #2 2.67% -9.28% -0.17% 8.26%
Energy
WTI
WTI
Current Annualized Cost
7.37%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
5.59%
Historical 10/26 5YR Annualized Roll
7.27%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCWTI

CONTANGO WATCH: WTI steepened its contango by almost 2 percent last week, the trend across most of the one-year forward curve.

ROLL COSTS:
It costs investors 7.37 percent annualized to roll front-month WTI contracts, up from a cost of 5.59 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango

Brent
Brent
Current Annualized Cost
-11.85%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
-7.56%
Historical 10/26 5YR Annualized Roll
6.04%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCBrent

CONTANGO WATCH: Brent continued to widen its backwardation last week, contrasting sharply with the firm 6.04 percent contango of the five-year average historical roll for this date.

ROLL COSTS: Investors net 11.85 percent annualized from rolling front-month Brent contracts, up from a net of 7.56 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Backwardation

HH Natural Gas
HH
Current Annualized Cost
218.01%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
172.09%
Historical 10/26 5YR Annualized Roll
223.55%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCHH

CONTANGO WATCH: After a brief respite with last week's narrowed contango, natural gas has widened into even-steeper contango typical during this time of the year.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 218.01 percent annualized to roll front-month natural gas contracts, up from a cost of 172.09 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Steep Contango

Precious Metals
Gold
Gold
Current Annualized Cost
0.42%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
0.73%
Historical 10/26 5YR Annualized Roll
0.89%
Contract Months:
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
RCGold

CONTANGO WATCH: Gold continues to be in mild contango, although it narrowed slightly last week.

ROLL COSTS:
It costs investors 0.42 percent annualized to roll front-month gold contracts, down from a cost of 0.73 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Mild Contango

Silver
Silver
Current Annualized Cost
3.65%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
3.79%
Historical 10/26 5YR Annualized Roll
1.51%
Contract Months:
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Dec
RCSilver

CONTANGO WATCH: Contango has narrowed in silver at the front end of the forward curve following last week's falling prices.

ROLL COSTS:
It costs investors 3.65 percent annualized to roll front-month silver contracts, down from a cost of 3.79 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango
Platinum
Platin
Current Annualized Cost
0.76%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
1.35%
Historical 10/26 5YR Annualized Roll
1.40%
Contract Months:
Jan Apr Jul Oct
RCPlatin

CONTANGO WATCH: While platinum remains in mild contango, it has narrowed by half.

ROLL COSTS
: Investors paid 0.76 percent annualized from rolling front-month platinum contracts, down from a cost of 1.35 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Mild Contango

Palladium
Pallad
Current Annualized Cost
4.54%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
3.89%
Historical 10/26 5YR Annualized Roll
2.55%
Contract Months:
Mar Jun Sep Dec
RCPallad

CONTANGO WATCH: Palladium's peak into contango at the very front end of the curve steepened before flattening thereafter.

ROLL COSTS:
Investors paid 4.54 percent annualized from rolling front-month palladium contracts, up from a cost of 3.89 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango to Flat

Industrial Metals
Copper
Copper
Current Annualized Cost
-0.38%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
0.07%
Historical 10/26 5YR Annualized Roll
0.80%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCCopper

CONTANGO WATCH: Copper has dipped out of its mild contango into mild backwardation; however, the one-year forward curve remains in constant contango thereafter.

ROLL COSTS: Investors net 0.38 percent annualized to roll front-month copper contracts, down from a cost of 0.07 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Mild Backwardation to Contango

Aluminum
Alum
Current Annualized Cost
8.16%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
7.92%
Historical 10/26 5YR Annualized Roll
8.00%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCAlum

CONTANGO WATCH: The aluminum forward curve steepened slightly while remaining in steady contango.

ROLL COSTS:
Front-month roll costs rose to 8.16 percent annualized from 7.92 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango

Zinc
Zinc
Current Annualized Cost
8.27%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
8.55%
Historical 10/26 5YR Annualized Roll
5.41%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCZinc

CONTANGO WATCH: While zinc remains in contango across the one-year forward curve, it narrowed slightly last week.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 8.27 percent annualized to roll front-month zinc contracts, down from a cost of 8.55 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango

Lead
Lead
Current Annualized Cost
-3.51%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
0.00%
Historical 10/26 5YR Annualized Roll
3.09%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCLead

CONTANGO WATCH: Lead has moved into backwardation at the front end of the curve, moving into contango thereafter.

ROLL COSTS:
Investors net 3.51 percent annualized to roll front-month lead contracts, down from a flat cost of zero.

BOTTOM LINE: Backwardation to Contango

Nickel
Nickel
Current Annualized Cost
1.36%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
1.50%
Historical 10/26 5YR Annualized Roll
2.23%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCNickel

CONTANGO WATCH: Nickel narrowed its contango while remaining in steady contango throughout the forward curve.

ROLL COSTS:
It costs investors 1.36 percent annualized from rolling front-month nickel contracts, down slightly from a cost of 1.50 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Mild Contango

Tin
Tin
Current Annualized Cost
0.00%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
-1.40%
Historical 10/26 5YR Annualized Roll
-3.71%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCTin

CONTANGO WATCH: The tin forward curve has flattened before plunging again into backwardation across the one-year forward curve.

ROLL COSTS:
It costs investors nothing to roll front-month tin contracts, up from a net of 1.40 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Flat to Backwardation

Agricultural Commodities
Corn
Corn
Current Annualized Cost
1.08%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
-1.17%
Historical 10/26 5YR Annualized Roll
10.01%
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RCCorn

CONTANGO WATCH: Corn has moved into mild contango following rising prices after the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported lower-than-expected export sales.

ROLL COSTS:
It cost investors 1.08 percent annualized from rolling front-month corn contracts, up from a net of 1.17 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Mild Contango

Wheat
Wheat
Current Annualized Cost
6.97%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
5.09%
Historical 10/26 5YR Annualized Roll
17.59%
Contract Months:
Mar May Jul Sep Dec
RCWheat

CONTANGO WATCH: Wheat's contango continued to steepen last week, rising almost 2 percent.

ROLL COSTS: Wheat's annualized front-month roll costs rose from 5.09 percent to 6.97 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango

Soybeans
SoyB
Current Annualized Cost
0.68%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
0.87%
Historical 10/26 5YR Annualized Roll
3.01%
Contract Months:
Jan Mar May Jul Aug Sep Nov
RCSoyB

CONTANGO WATCH: Soybeans narrowed their mild contango on the way back into the backwardation that dominates the one-year forward curve.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 0.68 percent annualized from rolling front-month soybeans contracts, down from 0.87 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Mild Contango

Live Cattle
LiveC
Current Annualized Cost
20.34%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
18.90%
Historical 10/26 5YR Annualized Roll
12.46%
Contract Months:
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
RCLiveC

CONTANGO WATCH: Live cattle curve remains in contango, widening slightly.

ROLL COSTS:
It costs investors 20.34 percent annualized to roll front-month live cattle contracts, up from a cost of 18.90 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango

Lean Hogs
LeanH
Current Annualized Cost
50.36%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
55.45%
Historical 10/26 5YR Annualized Roll
64.08%
Contract Months:
Feb Apr May Jun Jul Aug Oct Dec
RCLeanH

CONTANGO WATCH: The front end of the lean hogs forward curve continues to narrow its contango, while the back end is still firmly in backwardation.

ROLL COSTS: It costs investors 50.36 percent annualized to roll front-month lean hogs contracts, down from a cost of 55.45 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango to Backwardation

Soft Commodities
Coffee C
Coffee
Current Annualized Cost
11.43%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
10.74%
Historical 10/26 5YR Annualized Roll
9.77%
Contract Months:
Mar May Jul Sep Dec
RCCoffee

CONTANGO WATCH: Coffee is in contango throughout the one-year forward curve, steepening slightly.

ROLL COSTS:
It costs investors 11.43 percent annualized to roll front-month coffee contracts, up from a cost of 10.74 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango
Cocoa
Cocoa
Current Annualized Cost
1.86%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
1.46%
Historical 10/26 5YR Annualized Roll
3.73%
Contract Months:
Mar May Jul Sep Dec
RCCocoa

CONTANGO WATCH: Cocoa moved deeper into its mild contango last week, with the trend continuing across most of the one-year forward curve.

ROLL COSTS:
It costs investors 1.86 percent annualized to roll front-month cocoa contracts, up from a cost of 1.46 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango
Sugar #11
Sugar
Current Annualized Cost
-2.45%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
-2.94%
Historical 10/26 5YR Annualized Roll
-11.71%
Contract Months:
Mar May Jul Oct
RCSugar

CONTANGO WATCH: Sugar narrowed its steep backwardation slightly at the front end of the curve.

ROLL COSTS:
Investors net 2.45 percent annualized from rolling front-month sugar contracts, down from a net of 2.94 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Backwardation to Contango
Cotton #2
Cotton
Current Annualized Cost
2.67%
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
-9.28%
Historical 10/26 5YR Annualized Roll
8.26%
Contract Months:
Mar May Jul Oct Dec
RCCotton

CONTANGO WATCH: Cotton came out of backwardation into contango again following last week's harvest speculations.

ROLL COSTS:
Cotton's annualized front-month roll rose from a net of 9.28 percent to cost investors 2.67 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Contango