Column/Features
Oil ETFs Drop After Soft US Jobs Data
May 04, 2012
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Oil ETFs, such as the United States Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO), dropped sharply on Friday after the U.S. government reported that employment in April expanded less than had been forecast, fueling views that the economic recovery is losing steam and that oil demand is likely to soften. The U.S. economy generated 115,000 nonfarm jobs in April—below the 168,000 forecast by economists, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. However, March data were revised upward to reflect 154,000 new jobs from the 120,000 reported initially. Still, the report’s downside was more than enough to send stocks lower, Treasurys higher and, not least, oil lower. Nearby crude futures on the NYMEX briefly gapped down 2.5 percent to below $100 for the first time in more than two months, and the Dow Jones industrial was down 165 points, or 1.25, to 13,040.58 in early Friday afternoon trade. In the ETF market, that translated to the front-month futures-based USO dropping $1.70, or 4.4 percent, to $37.14 a share. The PowerShares DB Oil Fund (NYSEArca: DBO), an ETF designed to minimize the costs of rolling contract exposures in futures-based investment strategies, also fell—about 4.4 percent to $28.24 a share, according to data posted on Google Finance. While oil demand in the U.S. has been steady to lower over the past three years due to the sluggish economy and even a growing number of more fuel-efficient vehicles on U.S. roads, oil continues to play a canary-in-the-coal-mine role in the economy. Once economic signals suggest weakness, oil moves lower and, conversely, when economic indicators improve, oil quickly catches a bid in financial markets. The weakness in oil extended to equities-based ETFs such as the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEArca: XLE) and the Vanguard Energy ETF (NYSEArca: VDE), which declined 1.74 percent and 2.59 percent, respectively. Fed Talk Helps Gold The jobs report also stoked talk that the Federal Reserve might again move into fixed-income markets to purchase bonds to keep yields low, and thereby encourage growth-supporting borrowing. The prospect of more “quantitative easing” by the Fed never fails to lift the gold market, as many argue that such central bank activity weakens the dollar, enhancing perceptions of the yellow metal as a superior store of value. The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD), the $67 billion physical bullion fund and the second-biggest ETF in the world, was up about a third of a percent, or 57 cents, to $159.52 a share. Also, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX) was up 1 percent to $44.31 a share. The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (NYSEArca: TLT)—a mainstay in the ETF market that cherry-picks long-dated U.S. government debt—was up about 0.75 percent to $118.05 a share—another sign the market fears economic growth is slowing.
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