Features
     
SAVE AND SHARE Digg Del.icio.us Reddit Newsvine RSS

Making Sense of Commodity Products
Written by Brad Zigler   
Thursday, 24 April 2008 12:01

Bigger is not necessarily better. Oh, sure; you'll always want bigger returns, but what about downside variance or bid/ask spreads? Those you'd want to be as small as possible, wouldn't you?

Investors considering a portfolio allocation to commodities for the first time are being tempted by an ever-widening assortment of competing products. Just this month, for example, a flotilla of Bloomberg/CMCI exchange-traded notes was launched. Just how do you select the right exchange-traded fund or note to place in your portfolio?

First things first. Let's look at the choices you now have to gain broad-based commodity exposure:

Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index: This index can be accessed through a Barclays Bank-issued iPath note (NYSE Arca: DJP). Made up of 19 futures weighted primarily for trading volume and secondarily based on global production, energy carries the topmost weight, followed by metals, agriculturals, soft commodities and livestock.

The S&P GSCI is a production-weighted benchmark of two dozen commodities adjusted for liquidity and investability. Currently, the S&P GSCI is most heavily weighted in energy products. Investment in the index can be proxied through a Barclays Global Investors-managed iShares fund (NYSE Arca: GSG), an iPath note (NYSE Arca: GSP), or, in modified form, through an ETN issued by Goldman Sachs (NYSE Arca: GSC).

The Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index: Comprised of only of six commodities, all purported to be the most liquid in their respective sectors, DBLCI is most heavily weighted in energy, then agriculturals and metals. There is no exposure to livestock or softs within DBLCI. A dual rebalancing policy is designed to maximize the return, or minimize the costs, of rolling futures forward. DBLCI underlies the PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking ETF (AMEX: DBC).

The Rogers International Commodity Index, the broadest and most international of the benchmarks, consists of 35 commodities. Weights are determined by a commodity's importance in international trade, with energy weighted most heavily, followed by agriculturals, softs, metals and livestock. An ETN tracking RICI (AMEX: RJI) is offered under the ELEMENTS brand.

The Continuous Commodity Index is, in fact, the original Commodity Research Bureau Index. The index is made up of 17 equal-weighted futures contracts. Sectorwise, agriculturals and softs are the heftiest, comprising nearly half the benchmark's weight. Metals make up about a quarter, with energy and livestock splitting the balance. The GreenHaven Continuous Commodity Index ETF (AMEX: GCC) provides access to the benchmark.

The Lehman Brothers Commodity Index Pure Beta Total Return Index, the basis for an ETN bearing the Opta marque (AMEX: RAW), is comprised of 20 futures contracts weighted most heavily to the energy sector, followed by smaller exposures to metals, agriculturals and livestock. The index dynamically underweights and overweights sector allocations to maximize roll yields.

The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index can be accessed through an ETN issued by UBS (NYSE Arca: UCI). The index tracks the returns from a basket of 28 commodity futures covering the energy, metals, agricultural and livestock sectors. Component futures are diversified across five constant maturities ranging from three months up to three years.

Now for the fun part.

Product selection starts by identifying those features most important to you. If you think seasoning, cost, liquidity, return and volatility are critical, construct a grid showing the appropriate raw data:

 

 

Each metric, i.e., bid/ask spread size, return, etc., should then be weighted for its relative importance. If current returns are most important, you might, for example, assign a weight of "10" to the category. Equal importance given to average daily volume would be signified with the award of a "10" to that category, while the assignment of an "8" to the downside variance metric denotes a characteristic of lesser importance. The weighting scheme is entirely personal. There's no "right" or "wrong" system.

Next, assign a ranking order, 1 through 9, to each of the nine products in each category according to its attractiveness. The product with the tightest spread, for example, would earn a "9" for being most attractive while the fund with the highest fees would warrant a "1" as the least attractive choice. When a category has products with identical characteristics, assign a priority to those products consistent with your overall investment preferences. For example, if you prefer seasoned over untested products, ties would be broken in favor of the investment with the earlier inception date.

Complete the matrix by multiplying each ranking order by the category weight. For example, a "9" in the expense/fee category, which is weighted as "6," earns the product a "54."

Then, simply tally the results across each product's row to arrive at a total. The highest score denotes the most attractive product.

 

 

With these parameters in mind, the Powershares DBC ETF, with a score of 336, fits your investment demeanor best.

 


113-trading day period from April 2, the launch of trading in UCI, and April 18, 2008.


This article first appeared on HardAssetsInvestor.com.

 

Latest comments on this feature

4 Latest comments on this feature.

It's my understanding, that if the sponsoring entity goes bankrupt, individual accounts are not protected from creditors. Investing in these also assumes credit risk. That being said, I own DBA.

Posted by Michael Lasky, on Thursday, 01 May 2008

ETN's are debt products so they are exposed to credit risk. Not sure about ETFs or ETCs. The returns figures used are misleading even if there is a footnote. Look at returns over 13 years MAYBE, not 13 days...

Disclosure: I own DBC

Posted by Jon, on Thursday, 01 May 2008

No credit risk attaches to ETFs or ETCs. ETNs are senior, unsecured zero-coupon obligations of the issuer, so there's nothing collateralizing the notes.

DBA, as an ETF, is backed by an actual futures portfolio which is collateralized by Treasury securities. Customer accounts in futures are, by law, segregated from broker capital, but there can still be hanky-panky (think "Refco").

The trade-off for using an ETN? Investors swap tracking error (DBA can have quite a bit now that's bumped up against position limits) for credit risk.

Jon, the 13-day span for returns was selected to allow for side-by-side comparisons of ALL the broad-based index trackers extant.

UCI was just launched in April to much anticipation.

It's just an apples-to-apples comparison; an early look at real world trading rather than backtested data.

Posted by Brad Zigler, on Thursday, 08 May 2008

According to the DBA prospectus, funds are "pooled" and there is an assumption of credit risk. I'm not commenting on the legalities, just what I read.

Posted by mslasky, on Thursday, 08 May 2008

Post a Comment

Comment
(Limit 2,000
characters) 
*
Name: *
E-mail: *
Home page:

(optional)

Type in the displayed characters
Email follow-up comments to my e-mail address
 
 
Be up-to-date


 

Related Features

 


 


 

Advertising
Industry Innovators


 

 

Innovators