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The Long Road: Emerging Markets A Safer Haven?
Written by Murray Coleman  -  March 14, 2008 17:54 PM
Related ETFs: ECH / EWT / EWW / EWZ / FXI / GML / SPY

 

Here's where the tricky part comes. So far, that hasn't been the case. Take the mega-cap iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (NYSE: FXI). It's down more than 19% this year, more than double The SPDRs (AMEX: SPY).

But economists and stock traders seem to be in agreement about many Latin American markets. The SPDR S&P Emerging Latin America (AMEX: GML), for example, is up more than 3% in 2008.

Longer term, economists also continue to favor prospects for larger developing countries such as Brazil, China and India.

"We maintain that despite the U.S. recession, as well as a slowdown across developed markets such as the U.K, euro zone, Japan and Australia, the world economy will continue to grow," said Matthew Cairns, a senior Moody's economist, in a recent report.

In the short term, that should support expansion of local economies in countries like Brazil and Indonesia. The iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (NYSE: EWZ) is up slightly this year. The iShares MSCI Chile Index (NYSE: ECH) is doing even better with a 6%-plus rise so far.

But even Mexico is seen as emerging from the U.S.' shadow. The iShares MSCI Mexico Index (NYSE: EWW) has gained more than 2% this year. Elsewhere, the iShares MSCI Taiwan Index (NYSE: EWT) is also in the black. And keep an eye on Russia's expanding influence over emerging markets in Europe. According to Moody's analysts, the country's using its dominance in European energy markets to manipulate political developments.

"Furthermore, the move toward ‘market pricing' by Russia's energy producers has significant implications for economic growth. Gas charges to Ukrainian consumers jumped a massive 38% at the beginning of the year - a development that is sure to dampen consumer spending and ease growth further," wrote a team of Moody's economists.

Also, if you're thinking about changing around your portfolio to protect against a declining dollar, be forewarned that not everyone's in panic mode yet.

A foreign currency ETF or two probably won't hurt. But some perspective might be needed if you're long-term oriented. In a nutshell, Cairns in another study concluded that the situation isn't as dire as many are claiming.

"Because central banks in the Middle East and Asia would book huge losses if they sold out of dollars, the likelihood of their doing so is slim," he wrote. "Moreover, further weakening of the dollar means the competitiveness of many Russian, Middle Eastern and Chinese exporting segments will decrease."

Cairns added: "Their respective export performances over the past several years are helping them accumulate these vast reserves. Biting the hand that fed them does not seem their best option at this stage."


Murray Coleman is managing editor at IndexUniverse.com. He can be reached at: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

 



More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on Emerging Markets at Wikinvest
 

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