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Currently, demographics are suggesting to Clark that software is hot. "Regardless of what the other data suggests, people are still enthusiastic about gadgets," he said. "The middle class has a lot of discretionary income, much more than a lot of analysts are taking into account. And we think a lot of the upcoming tax stimulus package will wind up in handheld phones, Apple computers and flat-screen televisions."
To take advantage of that trend, he's putting clients into iShares S&P North American Tech-Software (NYSE: IGV). Its two largest holdings are Oracle and Microsoft. "We use IGV to buy software used to power all of the gadgets that make American consumers happy people," Clark said.
Correction on Horizon
While he sees a significant demographic change is coming, his view is that a correction remains 18 months to two years away. "Wall Street is in a depression, but main street companies are doing fine. Earnings numbers are strong, but financial companies from investment banks to brokerage firms are really down," Clark said. "We are in a bifurcated economy these days."
If the dollar holds tight or goes up, he's expecting to reduce his positions in IYM and XES to a market-neutral weighting. That's the same as the S&P 500, which is around 12% exposure to energy with about a third in equipment. Now, he's holding about double that weighting in energy through XES.
On the materials side, Clark has about a double weighting as the S&P 500. About 3.6% of the blue chip benchmark is in that area now; his clients hold a total of about 6% through IYM and iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index (NYSE: ILF).
"Latin America holds a lot of materials, which we count in our allocations to the sector," Clark said.
If the Fed says it'll keep cutting rates, those allocation levels will remain about the same. But if it appears after Wednesday the Fed plans to turn its attention to inflation, that could destabilize the value of the dollar. And Clark would be inclined to sell out of IYM.
But in either case, he's sticking with ILF. "We'd actually increase the position if given the opportunity," Clark said.
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