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| Triple Leverage: A Good Idea? |
| - January 26, 2009 18:03 PM |
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(Editor's Note: The following is an edited excerpt from January's cover story in The Exchange-Traded Funds Report. For the full story, subscribers can go here.)
In early November 2008, Direxion Funds rolled out the first of its much-anticipated triple-exposure exchange-traded funds. Somewhat surprisingly, the Direxion ETFs as a whole have been an instant hit. The funds launched into a market with direct and established competition, from ProShares ETFs, which has provided leveraged and inverse leveraged ETFs since 2006. But investors have flocked to the Direxion funds. At the end of November, with less than a full month of trading behind them, the eight funds had accumulated a total of more than $510 million in assets, with the largest fund—the Direxion Large Cap Bull 3X Fund (NYSEArca: BGU)—racking up more than $195 million. ETFs are generally considered a success if they break the $100 million mark, and there are hundreds of more-established exchange-traded products out there that have yet to achieve even $25 million in assets. To gather that much in assets in such a short period of time is surprising. What's more interesting than assets, perhaps, are the volumes displayed by the funds. In the early weeks of December, BGU was regularly trading more than 10 million shares a day. Of the remaining seven funds, six were seeing volumes almost uniformly in the millions. To put that in perspective, the original SPDR (NYSEArca: SPY) trades hundreds of millions of shares on a daily basis, but still: A few million shares daily is well beyond respectable for your average, well-established ETF. That's what the heads of Ironwood Asset Management are using the funds for. Partners Gary Stringer and Derek Sinani had pulled back into cash by the end of 2007, well before the market chaos of 2008. After largely exiting the market, "we began looking for opportunities to put smaller amounts of capital at work and trying to leverage the opportunity of a volatile market," said Sinani.
Essentially, these are funds you never want to turn your back on—triple leverage means that in three days, an unattended fund that sees declines of 2% each day in its benchmark index would be down more than 20%. The compounding issue means there is no guarantee that if the market falls 20% this year, a 300% inverse fund will deliver 60% returns. It only guarantees returns on a one-day basis; after one day, the math gets funny. The compounding effect is an issue with any product offering more than straight 100% or -100% exposure, but it becomes a particularly urgent issue when triple exposure is paired with exceptionally volatile markets. "If you get caught on the wrong side of one of these, it's a nightmare," Welch said. At Ironwood, both Stringer and Sinani emphasized that a triple-exposure fund should not represent a large part of an overall portfolio, and they have kept their investments in such funds to 5-10%.
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