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In particular, Green's expecting technology to outperform in the next several years. He points out that information technology stocks in the S&P 500 have rallied more than 25% in the past 30 days. "Although we expect the economy to start growing again, it appears to be a slower-growth scenario," said Green. "In that environment, tech stocks are positioned to do well."
Coming on the heels of two relatively recent recessions—the first ending in 2002 and the latest, which officially started at the end of 2007—Green believes valuations on U.S. equities are still extremely attractive. "With so much fear in the market, investors have sought safety in bond funds," he said. "Going forward, with so many people locked into low-yielding Treasuries and other relatively low-returning areas of fixed income, we think that stock valuations will remain attractive."
Tilting To The U.S.
Currently, the firm's typical globally balanced stock portfolio has about 55% in U.S. equities with almost 30% in foreign-focused ETFs. The other 15% is allocated to alternative funds such as the iPath S&P GSCI Total Return Index ETN (NYSEArca: GSP) and the PowerShares Listed Private Equity (NYSEArca: PSP).
To provide international exposure, the firm owns the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock ETF (NYSEArca: VWO) and the iShares MSCI EAFE Index (NYSEArca: EFA) in globally balanced plans.
Green also builds portfolios with allocations 100% devoted to international ETFs. Those are marketed as its Guardian Country Allocation plan. Last year, the firm's Guardian Country Allocation model portfolio ranked in the top 3% among private account managers in foreign large blend categories, according to Morningstar Inc. In 2009 through last week, the portfolio was up more than 3% compared to the EAFE index's greater-than 10% loss.
In an average year, Green estimates that the turnover rate in the firm's globally balanced portfolio is around 100%. In the Guardian Country Allocation model, those rates tend to be much higher—probably around 200% per year, he adds.
"The volatility can be much higher using country-specific ETFs. But we actually reduce risks while maximizing returns by managing those portfolios more actively," said Green.
The country-specific portfolio now is evenly weighted between five iShares ETFs: South Korea (NYSEArca: EWY); Japan (NYSEArca: EWJ); Brazil (NYSEArca: EWZ); South Africa (NYSEArca: EWA) and China (NYSEArca: FXI).
"The U.S. economy went into a tailspin first. We'd expect the rest of the world to follow our rebound. So our investment overseas is anticipating longer-term growth prospects rather than any shorter-term view," said Green.
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