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Fishing For Clues In Maine
By Matt Hougan | August 12, 2009

Related ETFs: UNG

 

I was lucky enough to spend the past weekend at the annual economists’ retreat hosted by David Kotok, the chief investment officer for Cumberland Advisors, at Leen’s Lodge.

Matt HouganIn case you haven’t heard of the place, it’s a popular vacation destination for hunting and fishing. Nestled deep in the woods of eastern Maine, Leen’s Lodge is a great place to get away from the noise of Wall Street and clear your head.

And that’s exactly what this year’s participants seemed to be doing. The event pulled together 35 of the world’s leading economists, fund managers and thinkers (not counting me) for a weekend of fishing, forecasting and fine wine. CNBC even brought up its equipment and broadcast live from the lake.

Sifting Through The Buzz

The economic forecasts from the meeting were varied. There was no central consensus on the outlook for the markets, inflation, oil prices, gold or anything else. With a few outliers, the prevailing wisdom seemed to be that the markets will trip along sideways for awhile as we watch the high-wire act of the Federal Reserve attempting to withdraw liquidity from the market.

A few attendees were immediately concerned with inflation. But that fear wasn’t overwhelming in the short term.

There were, however, fairly widespread concerns about the long-term prospects for the American economy. That included the risk of regulatory overreach and the growing involvement of government in American industry.

Many expect lower levels of growth going forward, similar to the thesis outlined by Pimco co-CEO Bill Gross as the “new normal.”

The liveliest debate of the weekend centered on the likelihood of Ben Bernanke’s reappointment. I sided with those who thought he will be reappointed; I think President Obama and company want to tell a positive story about the state of the economy—and that means reappointing Bernanke.

But there were savvy folks on the opposite side of that equation, so I certainly could well be wrong.

Interestingly, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, most people agreed, was on the way out.

(You can find more reports from the meeting here and here.)

 


 

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