I’m a devotee of TV cop shows, which shouldn’t be a surprising admission from a Capitalist Cop. The various CSI shows are among my favorites. I admire the casting decision to fill the screen with beautiful women. Unfortunately for me, my only female assistant when I go digging for evidence is my cat, who insists on strolling between my keyboard and computer screen to make sure I don’t forget she’s there.

Over my years in the markets, the idea keeps popping up that somehow when the Oval Office is occupied by a Republican, the markets reply with rallying glee. I’ve never really been a believer. It seems to me that every Democratic president in my memory, JFK being the first, has had no problem filling cabinet posts with Democrats from Wall Street. Yes Virginia, there are such characters. So I thought it might be interesting to search for evidence that might shed light on which party is better for financial markets.

I realize that this isn’t quite as precise as scanning for DNA matches in a crime lab. I don’t have any of those whiz-bang computer connections the real and fictional cops seem to have. But I did collect a few numbers that, at the very least, will be fun to look at.

I defined my data set as follows: The closing price of the Dow on Inauguration Day of the president’s first term, through the closing price of the Dow on July 5, in the second calendar year of that first term (which is just about where we stand today in the current administration’s cycle). Thirty years or so should be within most of our memories, so I started with Reagan’s first Inauguration Day, Jan. 20, 1981.

We can argue from today to doomsday about whether my methodology will reveal anything of substance. But it seems to have a nice and fair-minded balance of history and more contemporary findings that will help me make my case.

During the Reagan data set, the Dow lost 16 percent. Bush, the father (Jan. 20, 1989-July 8, 1990) outdid his predecessor, presiding over a 28.8 percent gain. Bill Clinton (Jan. 20, 1993-July 5, 1994) could point to a 12.6 percent gain in his first year-and-a-half in the White House. Bush, the son (Jan. 20, 2001-July 5, 2002) didn’t do dad so proud—the Dow lost 11.5 percent. Obama (Jan. 20, 2009-July 5, 2010) has a more than respectable 22.5 percent gain in his ledger.

I’ll save all the “naysayers” the effort here; even in my opinion, this doesn’t really prove anything. As we often find with financial figuring, you can come up with interesting information that often has little or no utilitarian value. Still, I’m not at all surprised to find that in this very limited sample, party affiliation seems to have no correlation whatsoever. I don’t believe it does in the long term either, but someone else can go digging in that mine.

In the realm of the economy and markets, to my knowledge, the powers vested in the presidency are limited. The founders seemed to want it that way. The president’s “bully pulpit” is a perk of office we could all envy, but other than short-lasting emotionally driven market reactions to this decision or that, the president’s power to affect the long term seems questionable.

Democrat or Republican, I just don’t think the market gives a damn. That said, I don’t think it would stop some innovative ETF marketer from creating a product that tapped into data in opposition to mine. I just love free markets.

Maybe someday if I get a promotion to Capitalist Detective I’ll get a stunning data mining assistant. For now, it’s me, the cat and my walking beat.

Oscar Silver, aka “The Capitalist Cop,” is a Brooklyn, N.Y. native. He was a financial adviser for more than 20 years.