While logged in around the virtual editorial conference table here at IndexUniverse.com, there was a lot of discussion recently about the possibility of a double-dip recession. As a sworn capitalist cop, I figured I needed to know just what the double-dips statute called for so I would know one when I saw one and know what to do.

I went to my main resource for such things, my Dictionary of Finance and Investment Terms. It had very detailed definitions of double tops and double bottoms, but no entry or even a footnote citing “double dip.”

How much time must or can transpire between dips before the second move can no longer be paired with the first? What timeline must we use when we go back to determine when the first one occurred? Even a casual observer of the financial markets understands markets do this up and down thing all the time. How can a cop know if a double dip—which the folks around the virtual conference table seemed to deem worthy of investigation—might actually occur?

While all the rules for doubling remain unclear, the fact that we’ve been experiencing an economic slowdown isn’t news. People and businesses are suffering. But there are a couple of factors I have faith in. Unless I’ve missed the memo, no one has repelled the laws of the business cycle, and I for one still hold with views of the economist Joseph Schumpeter (1883-1950), who wrote at length about his idea of “creative destruction.”

From the ashes of economic turmoil like our current situation, new and perhaps as-yet-unthought-of businesses should rise like the mythical phoenix.

As I write this, two news items came over the wires that might be signs that classic business cycling is occurring. There was a jump in August in pending new home sales and there was a drop in the pace of unemployment claims. For those anticipating a double dip, these might be disquieting signs.

Both seem like signs of demand. Unless you’re of the mind that the American public was never going to move or need a bigger home, eventually home prices would fall to a point where buyers would come back into the market. Much unemployment is caused by lack of demand, but as demand returns—a basic factor in the business cycle—workers will be needed to once again replenish inventories. When folks go back to work, their paychecks fuel even more demand. Call me naive, but I believe this to be at the very core of the capitalist economic model.

I refuse to be drawn into a discussion of when there will be a double dip. I’m more on the side of not really expecting one. I’ll leave the predicting to those who are trying to sell you something based on their apparent foresight.

I think the best thing a capitalist cop can say at this point is: “Buyer beware.” Because if—and “if” is still the operative word—the next move is up, you don’t want to be wishing you were better prepared.

Oscar Silver, aka “The Capitalist Cop,” is a Brooklyn, N.Y. native. He was a financial adviser for more than 20 years.