In Asia, economic recovery looks to be sporadic through this year. And even more confusing for investors will be quite divergent paths for the region as four markets appear positioned for growth, with most others set to continue steep declines.

At least that's the conclusion of a new report by Moody's economist Alaistair Chan. A review of exchange-traded funds covering the Asia Pacific region—as well as specific countries—shows that recent performance trends are already pointing in many of the same directions (see table below).

In a research piece published Tuesday on Moody's DismalScientist site, the Sydney-based analyst forecasts the following:

• The economies of China, India, Indonesia and the Philippines are expected to expand, ranging from around 3-7% by year's end.

• In Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Thailand, Australia and New Zealand, markets will keep contracting. Japan and South Korea will lead the way with around 6% negative output, while contraction in Australia and New Zealand will be slight, according to Chan.

"Asia's three big tech exporters, Japan, Korea and Taiwan, have been among the worst hit in the current downturn, and production has fallen at a steeper pace than in the U.S. during the Great Depression," he said in the piece.

Countries with more-diversified economies such as Thailand and Malaysia will fare somewhat better than Japan, Korea and Taiwan, the report says. At the same time, still-low commodity prices "have pushed Australia to the brink of recession," added Chan.

By contrast, three economies—India, Indonesia and the Philippines—are doing relatively well because of continued internal growth and less reliance on exports. But the Moody's economist doesn't believe any of those markets will reach growth levels attained last year.

"India and Indonesia faced capital outflows as investors fled risk in late 2008, and although this has subsided, their currencies remain weaker than pre-crisis levels, raising the cost of foreign financing," remarked Chan.

He's expecting China to stage a midyear recovery and wind up as the fastest-growing economy in Asia in 2009.

But Chan raises plenty of warnings that could derail that market's advance. Among those is the fact that exports fell more than 25% in February. And retail sales as well as consumer data indicate that household spending still hasn't started to expand.

"Given that it is a final destination for regional exports before being sent to developed markets, it could simply be a few months behind the rest of the region, and the domestic economy could slow dramatically in coming months," concluded Chan.

In other words, the outcome for 2009 remains in doubt. Much the same seems to be the case for the 34 different exchange-traded funds covering Asia Pacific and specific countries in the region. Consider the following random survey of 20 such ETFs and their recent performances (through Monday):

Sources: companies, Morningstar