The two composite S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price indexes are still way off their 2006 highs (by 29 percent or more) as of their October 2009 readings, but the indexes are continuing to improve.

Currently the one-year declines for the 10-city and 20-city composites stand at 6.4 and 7.3 percent, respectively—up from respective one-year declines of 8.5 and 9.4 percent as of September. The annual rate of decline has been improving for nine consecutive months, and the actual index levels are back to where they were in autumn 2003.

On a month-to-month basis, however, S&P Index Committee Chairman David Blitzer describes October as essentially “flat,” noting that “[t]he turn-around in home prices seen in the Spring and Summer has faded …”

He also warns against anticipating another home-price death spiral: “Coming after a series of solid gains, these data are likely to spark worries that home prices are about to take a second dip. Before jumping to conclusions, recognize that the one time that happened at the beginning of the 1980s, Fed policy saw dramatic reversals, which is very different from the stable and consistent Fed policy we have today. Further, sales of existing homes—those included in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices—have been very strong in recent months, working off the inventories of houses for sale.”

However, Blitzer listed some very real risks in the market, even as he discouraged panic: weak housing starts, the looming possibility of mass foreclosures and the approaching expiration of government-sponsored programs that were helping to stimulate the housing market.

That’s the long version; in short, the October index readings were a mixed bag.

On a more granular level, 12 of the 20 individual metropolitan areas were in negative territory for October; in September, that number stood at 10. The worst performers in October were Atlanta and Chicago, both down 1 percent, and Tampa, down 1.6 percent. Phoenix and San Francisco were at the other end of the spectrum, up 1.3 and 1.2 percent, followed by San Diego, up 0.4 percent.

According to S&P, California really seems to be seeing the most steady improvement, with Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco each seeing between five and seven months of positive returns; meanwhile, S&P notes that Las Vegas has seen 38 consecutive months of declines in home prices.

On a year-over-year basis, all of the 20 cities covered by the indexes remained in negative territory, but that covers quite a range. The best performers were Denver (down 0.1 percent), Dallas (down 0.6 percent) and San Diego (down 2.4 percent). The worst performer by far was Las Vegas, down 26.6 percent, followed by Phoenix and Tampa, down 18.1 and 15.2 percent, respectively.

Could October 2009 represent another turning point in home price trends? Possibly, but we’ve likely seen the last of the stomach-churning declines for a while.