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November Home Price Data Seen As Mixed
January 26, 2010 5:00 pm
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The latest U.S. housing market data—as measured by the two composite S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price indexes—continue to support a case for improving home prices, though November numbers do offer some mixed signals. While the annual rate of price declines has slowed down to single digits for three consecutive months now, some markets continue to show weakness. And values remain nowhere near their 2006 highs.
Currently, the one-year declines for the 10-city and 20-city composites stand at 4.5 and 5.3 percent, respectively—up from respective one-year declines of 6.4 and 7.3 percent as of October. The annual rate of decline has been improving for 10 consecutive months, and the actual index levels are back to where they were in late 2003.
“While we continue to see broad improvement in home prices as measured by the annual rate, the latest data show a far more mixed picture when you look at other details,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor’s. According to Blitzer, only five of the markets saw price increases in November vs. October. In addition, four markets—Charlotte, Las Vegas, Seattle and Tampa—saw new low index levels, with November now being considered their current trough value. Las Vegas, for instance, has now seen price declines for 39 consecutive months, with a peak-to-trough value of -55.6 percent. But there are markets, namely Dallas, Denver, San Diego and San Francisco, that are now in the black, something the market has not seen in two years or so. “To add more mixed signals, we are in a seasonally weak period for home prices, so the seasonally adjusted data are generally more positive, with 14 of the markets and both composites showing improved prices in November,” Blitzer said. On a year-over-year basis, 16 of all of the 20 cities covered by the indexes remained in negative territory, compared with all 20 the previous month. The best performers were Dallas (up 1.4 percent), San Francisco (up 1.0 percent), Denver (up 0.5 percent) and San Diego (up 0.4 percent). The worst performer by far was Las Vegas, down 24.5 percent, followed by Phoenix and Tampa, down 14.2 and 13.2 percent, respectively.
“On balance, while these data do show that home prices are far more stable than they were a year ago, there is no clear sign of a sustained, broad-based recovery,” Blitzer concluded.
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