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In the initial nine months of 2008 through September, key markets around the world suffered from a mixture of a strengthening U.S. dollar and a global credit crisis.
The backlash didn't find many places to hide, either in the third quarter or the opening nine months. The only international market producing a gain so far this year was Jordan, up a tiny 0.96%, according to results from Standard & Poor's indexes across the world.
(For a complete breakdown of monthly, quarterly and yearly returns by country and region, see the tables on the next page.)
"When you consider that Jordan is a very small market which can be difficult for U.S. investors to find easy exposure to, there has really been nowhere to hide in terms of bulk and liquidity," said Howard Silverblatt, Standard & Poor's senior index analyst.
According to S&P's index services unit:
- September was the worst month for emerging markets since August 1998. All 52 markets were down for the month, resulting in a $4.1 trillion loss in equity during September, a $5.8 trillion loss for the third quarter and a $10.5 trillion year-to-date loss.
- For September, emerging markets lost 18.76%, while developed markets fell 14.80%. The U.S. continued to perform better than other markets, with a loss of 9.29% during the month.
- The Philippines was the only market up during the third quarter (+0.04%).
- Emerging markets fell 27.98%, and developed markets lost 21.62% during the third quarter. The U.S. was down 8.85%, while Russia was off 45.52%.
- Year-to-date, all 26 developed markets lost ground, while 25 of the 26 emerging markets fell; Jordan is the only country up for the year, returning 0.96%.
The biggest loser for the year was tiny Iceland, where stocks were down 69.17% entering the fourth quarter. Other Nordic markets which have been some of Europe's steadiest performers in the past several years but continue to bleed in 2008 include: Norway (-42.79%); Sweden (-35.91%) and Denmark (-30.79%).
Even previous European stalwarts such as Ireland have fallen on tough times, dropping more than 51% for the year—and nearly 40% in the third quarter alone.
"Almost every overseas market was down 20-50%, which shows how nervous investors are on a global basis," said Geoffrey VanderPal, a Las Vegas-based advisor and professor who also serves as a part-time diplomat for the Slovak Republic.
"Liquidity issues in mortgage markets have been driving the economic slowdown, but this year we've seen a snowballing effect into other areas," he added.
Parts of Europe are experiencing rising unemployment rates, lower consumption as well as government bank bailouts and some failures. As a result, VanderPal—a frequent international traveler and investor in overseas markets for his high net worth clients using exchange-traded funds—believes the U.S. dollar's improving fortunes of late are more due to weakness in the euro.
"I was recently in Ireland, for example, and talked to several business owners. I also made a point of talking to sales clerks in major retail outlets in Dublin, who told me that foot traffic is starting to drop way down in just the past few months," VanderPal said.
The big three economies of developed Europe—the U.K., Germany and France—have all slid more than 30% so far this year. But even previously fast-growth emerging markets in eastern and central Europe have slowed notably. Those included the Czech Republic (-24.15%); Hungary (-29.96%); and Poland (-31.37%).
"For awhile, a lot of the eastern and central European countries were getting quite a bit of business from western European outsourcing activity," VanderPal said. "But that business has slowed as developed European markets slowed."
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